AI to Drive GDP Gains of $15.7T
June 29, 2017
GDP will be 14% higher in 2030 as a result of AI – the equivalent of an
additional $15.7 trillion. This makes it the biggest commercial
opportunity in today’s fast changing economy.
Drawing on a detailed analysis of the business impact of AI Sizing the
prize outlines the economies that are set to gain the most from AI. AI
will contribute $15.7 trillion to the global economy in 2030, more than
the current output of China and India combined.
Labour productivity improvements are
expected to account for over half of all economic gains from AI over the
period 2016-2030. Increased consumer demand resulting from AI-enabled
product enhancements will account for the rest. The greatest economic
gains from AI will be in China (26% boost to GDP in 2030) and North
America (14.5% boost), equivalent to a total of $10.7 trillion and
accounting for almost 70% of the global economic impact.
•North America will experience
productivity gains faster than China initially, driven by its readiness
for AI and the high fraction of jobs that are susceptible to replacement
by more-productive technologies.
•China will begin to pull ahead of
the US’s AI productivity gains in ten years, after it catches up on a
slower build up to the technology and expertise needed.
•Europe and Developed Asia will
also experience significant economic gains from AI (9-12% of GDP in
•Developing countries will
experience more modest increases (less than 6% of GDP) due to the much
lower rates of adoption of AI technologies expected (including Latin
"The analysis highlights how the value of AI enhancing and augmenting
what enterprises can do is large, if not larger than automation.”
comments Anand Rao, Global Leader of Artificial Intelligence at PwC. “It
demonstrates how big a game changer AI is likely to be – transforming
our lives as individuals, enterprises and as a society.”
Included in the analysis, the PwC AI Impact Index pinpoints three
business areas with the greatest AI potential in each of eight sectors.
Areas identified include image-based diagnostics, on demand production
and autonomous traffic control.
Overall, the biggest absolute sector gains will be in retail, financial
services, and healthcare as AI increases productivity, product value and
consumption. By 2030, an additional $9trn of GDP will be added from
product enhancements and shifts in consumer demand, behaviour, as AI
driven consumption gains overtake those of productivity.
Verweij, Global Data & Analytics Leader, PwC, comments: “No sector or
business is in any way immune from the impact of AI. The impact on
productivity alone could be competitively transformational and even
disruptive. Businesses that fail to apply AI, could quickly find
themselves being undercut on turnaround times as well as costs and
experience, and may lose a significant amount of their market share as a
“The big challenge is how to secure the right talent, technology and
access to data to make the most of this opportunity.”
The analysis underlines how the scale of the opportunity of AI needs to
be underpinned by both more robust governance and new operating models
to realise its full potential. A recent paper from PwC UK on Responsible
AI warned effective controls need to be built into the design and
implementation phase to ensure AI’s positive potential is secured, and
address stakeholder concerns about it operating beyond the boundaries of