If you look at Washington politics as a poker game, President Obama went
all in this week. His second inaugural address caught some by surprise
with a more edgy, partisan vibe that runs counter to the tradition that
the president’s maiden speech be full of lofty rhetoric and vague
generalities.
Four years ago, the newly elected Mr. Obama emphasized common ground and
the need to set aside petty recriminations in the era of sharply
polarized national politics. But after four years of stiff Republican
opposition to most of what he tried to do, it looks like a different,
more combative President Obama has emerged for his second term.
In his inaugural address, Mr. Obama said that on a range of issues,
“decisions are now upon us and we cannot afford to delay.” He added, “We
must act, knowing that our work will be imperfect.” Breaking a bit with
tradition, the president specifically mentioned several areas of focus,
including action on climate change and protecting entitlement programs
like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. Mr. Obama added that
“enduring security and lasting peace do not require perpetual war.”
Less Constrained by Politics
One lasting image of the inauguration was a brief moment after the
swearing-in ceremony that was captured on television. The president was
leaving the inaugural platform and headed up a staircase into the
Capitol building when he turned around and paused to look back at the
huge crowd stretching down the Mall. “I want to take a look one more
time. I’m not going to see this again.” This is a man who knows the
sands are already slipping out of the hourglass and that there is no
time to waste. Safely re-elected by a comfortable margin and never
having to worry about running again, Mr. Obama is giving off the aura of
someone willing to push hard for what he wants and less open to
compromise than he was during his first term.
Many Republicans were clearly put off by the tone of the president’s
inaugural address and dismissed it as a liberal screed. This may
encourage some conservatives to draw their own line in the sand and
simply refuse to consider much in the way of compromise as the second
term begins to play out. Besides, many Republicans believe they only
have to stall a year or so before the president’s second term momentum
will begin to slow. Second term presidents usually suffer congressional
losses in the midterm (2014), and by that time many Republicans will be
looking toward the next presidential election in 2016 and will consider
Mr. Obama a “lame duck.”
The recent history of second term presidents is not encouraging. Richard
Nixon was forced to resign by the Watergate scandal. Ronald Reagan’s
legacy was tarnished by Iran-Contra. Bill Clinton nearly got himself
thrown out of office by having an extra-marital affair. George W. Bush
got bogged down in Iraq.
After a difficult first term, conventional political wisdom would
suggest Mr. Obama seek out compromise and reconciliation with
Republicans in order to have any hope of getting things done. But at
least early on, this president seems determined to try to gain as much
leverage as he can from his re-election triumph and keep Republicans on
the defensive.
Republicans Blink
The decision by House Republican leaders to put off a fight over raising
the federal government’s debt limit for a few more months suggests they
are getting a little smarter about picking their battles. House Speaker
John Boehner wants a clean fight with the president and congressional
Democrats over cutting the budget and the size of government. Boehner
realized that getting tangled up in another debate over the debt ceiling
could lead to a government default, weaken the economy and put
Republicans in a very risky political position.
Instead, Republicans will focus on a fight over budget cuts in March,
when the temporary agreement to delay massive domestic and military cuts
expires. They believe at that point they will be in a stronger position
to pressure the president to accept significant cuts.
But Republicans, especially in the House of Representatives, remain
split over budget battle tactics. Cooler heads in the Republican caucus
remain wary of taking on the president directly in the wake of his
re-election and public approval rating, which is in the high 50’s. But
conservative firebrands in the House are still itching for a fight over
the budget and will push for a confrontation sooner rather than later,
citing polling and pressure from within their own congressional
districts for a showdown with Mr. Obama.
Rumblings of 2016
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was busy defending her department’s
response before Senate and House committees on the Libya attack last
September that killed four Americans, including Ambassador Chris
Stevens. At times emotional and agitated, Clinton parried criticism from
several Republican senators, including Senators John McCain (Arizona),
Ron Johnson (Wisconsin) and Rand Paul (Kentucky). There was also a
somewhat milder exchange between the secretary and Republican Marco
Rubio, the Florida senator who many see as a possible presidential
contender in 2016.
Speaking of the next presidential election, Clinton’s testimony on the
Benghazi attack marks the final chapter in her tenure as secretary of
state. One Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Barbara
Boxer of California, expressed the hope that this would not be the end
of Clinton’s career in public life, taken by some as a clear
encouragement for her to run for president in 2016. Mrs. Clinton is now
65 and the other leading Democrat for the nomination four years from now
is Vice President Joe Biden, who is 70.
A lot can happen in four years and who knows if either Clinton or Biden
can maintain enthusiasm levels for their potential candidacies over an
extended period. Besides, there is a whole new generation of Democrats
waiting in the wings, trying to figure out if they should make a bid for
the White House in 2016 or defer to Clinton and Biden and wait for
another time. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, Maryland Governor Martin
O’Malley and Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick are already getting
buzz about considering a run in 2016, though they will clearly wait a
bit to get a better idea of the intentions of Clinton and Biden.
It’s already clear that both major parties will be due for some sort of
a shake-up in 2016. Clinton should theoretically be a strong contender,
especially among women Democrats who believe it will be their turn after
Mr. Obama’s successful quest to become the first African-American
president. But if she declines to run, I don’t think the prospect of a
Biden candidacy will scare off too many other Democrats who might decide
their time has come to at least make a run at the White House.
The
Republican prospects are even more uncertain. Mitt Romney has already
faded from view and 2016 will offer opportunities for a varied field of
potential contenders to test the waters. In addition to the previously
mentioned Rubio, don’t forget New Jersey Governor Chris Christie who hit
74 percent approval in the latest Quinnipiac public opinion poll.
Twenty-sixteen might also be a chance for former Florida governor Jeb
Bush to insert himself into the mix, hoping voters are a little more
open to the idea of another Bush in the White House.
Tea Party favorite Rand Paul is already getting some attention from
conservative activists who want a true believer in the race. And don’t
forget Romney’s running mate from last year, Wisconsin Representative
Paul Ryan. Ryan may take the lead in the upcoming budget showdown with
the White House, though that would seem to carry with it as much risk as
reward if the proposals he puts forward are seen as too draconian.
