If you had told me a month ago that President Barack Obama would be seen
as the winner in two of his three debates with Mitt Romney, and that
Vice President Joe Biden would be given the edge in his showdown with
Paul Ryan, I might have concluded that this election would be a
slam-dunk for Team Obama. Well, it turns out the easy response to that
scenario is, “WRONG!”
The debates are now behind us and both campaigns are plunging full force
into the final two weeks of a presidential campaign that has been at
least two years in the making. Mitt Romney’s smashing win in the first
presidential debate in Denver on October 3rd changed the direction of
this race from trending toward President Obama to what we have now, a
dead heat.
Defining Romney
Starting after the Republican primaries earlier this year, the Obama
campaign did an effective job of depicting Mitt Romney as an out of
touch former corporate CEO who seemed incapable of connecting with real
people. This was mainly done through sometimes snarky TV ads that
highlighted Mr. Romney’s wealthy background, his wife’s interest in
dressage and the candidate’s overseas investments.
Mr. Romney, though, has been able to turn this around, thanks in large
part to his stellar performance in that first debate. Mr. Romney came
off as a confident business-savvy leader who deftly criticized the
president’s record without looking too mean, while at the same time
making a coherent case for a fresh approach on generating jobs and
economic growth.
In the 90 minutes of that first debate, Mr. Romney was able to undo, to
an extent, the Obama ad campaign of the past summer that was meant to
disqualify him as a potential president. In the final two debates, why
did I always get the feeling that Mr. Obama was still kicking himself
for not showing up for the first one in Denver?
The Obama strategy always rested on trying to disqualify Mr. Romney
early so that enough voters would not see him as a viable alternative to
the president. Mr. Romney has clearly emerged from the debates as a
viable alternative now, and that is one reason why you see a new
emphasis from the Obama campaign on being more specific about the next
four years should the president win re-election.
Commander in Chief Test
Mr. Romney’s demeanor in the third debate on foreign policy was a little
mystifying at first. He seemed to agree with the president, more or
less, on a range of issues, including how to handle Iran’s nuclear
ambitions, whether the U.S. should intervene in Syria and the planned
pullout of U.S. forces from Afghanistan in 2014. It was clear Mr. Romney
was making a major turn for the political middle, something he had a
history of doing as a politician in Massachusetts. Remember, the same
guy who was pro-choice on abortion in his failed 1994 bid for the Senate
against Ted Kennedy ran and won in the Republican primaries this year as
a “severe conservative” embracing pro-life values.
President Obama baited Mr. Romney at several points in their final
debate. But for the most part, the Republican nominee was determined to
resist any flare-ups, preferring to present himself as a committed
advocate for peace through strength who would be attractive to the
remaining pool of undecided voters, especially women. President Obama
continues to hold an advantage with women voters, but Mr. Romney has cut
into that margin in some recent polls, suggesting his focus on the
economy combined with a more restrained critique may be paying
dividends.
Romney advisers now seem confident that what came out of the three
presidential debates is a general acknowledgement that their candidate
presented himself as a viable alternative in terms of being president,
tackling the economy and becoming commander-in-chief. In effect, Mr.
Romney used the debates to recast his own image and reset his campaign
on more even footing with the president, turning the last two weeks into
much more of a ground-game competition in the nine states seen as the
key to the 2012 race.
Battleground Breakdown
There is a sense now that the Obama campaign is conceding North Carolina
to the Romney camp, which was not a surprise. Democrats narrowly won the
state four years ago and gambled they could do it again this year when
they held their nominating convention in Charlotte. But the latest polls
indicate a steady shift in the state toward Mr. Romney, something my VOA
colleague, Chris Simkins, noticed on his recent trip down South. In
addition, Chris noted a strong turnout of early voters in Republican
areas of North Carolina, a sign that they are much more excited than
they were for John McCain four years ago.
But if you put North Carolina into a red column for the Republicans, you
might think about coloring Nevada blue for Democrats. The president won
that state four years ago and seems to have a narrow but stable lead
there this year, with some help from Senate Majority leader Harry Reid.
So if we take those states out of the tossup list, we are left with
seven key states for the stretch run: Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Colorado,
Wisconsin, Iowa and New Hampshire. At the moment, the Romney camp
believes it has a slight advantage in Florida and maybe Colorado. The
Obama campaign feels good about Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire and, most
importantly, Ohio. Right now Virginia looks like the closest thing to a
pure toss-up state in this year’s election, though that could shift in
the final days.
Ohio,
more than any other state, is seen as the number one swing state in this
year’s election. Four years ago the Obama team won a convincing victory
in Ohio, and they have worked hard to keep their operation primed for
this year’s re-election effort. In addition, Democrats had a big turnout
last year to defeat a Republican-inspired referendum that would have
limited the rights of public employee unions to bargain collectively.
That landslide victory may have set the stage for a stronger than normal
Democratic showing in Ohio for this year’s presidential race, where both
campaigns are fighting hammer and tong for the state’s 18 Electoral
votes.
Remember, no Republican has ever been elected president without winning
Ohio. We’ll see in the next two weeks whether Mitt Romney makes one last
all-out effort to overtake the president there, or decides to try a
different route to getting to the magic number of 270 Electoral votes
needed to win the White House.
