Ataman Ozyildirim, Conference Board: October 2011 U.S. LEI Rises Sharply

November 18, 2011

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.9 percent in October to 117.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in September, and a 0.3 percent increase in August.

Underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs PDF

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “The October rebound of the LEI — largely due to the sharp pick-up in housing permits — suggests that the risk of an economic downturn has receded. Improving consumer expectations, stock markets, and labor market indicators also contributed to this month’s gain in the LEI as did the continuing positive contributions from the interest rate spread. The CEI also rose somewhat, led by higher industrial production and employment.”

Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The LEI is pointing to continued growth this winter, possibly even gaining a little momentum by spring. The lack of confidence has been the biggest obstacle in generating forward momentum, domestically or globally. As long as it lasts, there is a glimmer of hope.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in October to 103.5 (2004 = 100), following no change in September and August.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) increased 0.6 percent in October to 110.9 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in September, and a 0.2 percent increase in August.