Stuart Carlaw: Femtocells To Ramp Up in '10

May 5, 2008

Although the femtocell holds much promise for carriers of all kinds, 2008 is forecast to remain a fairly low-key year for femtocell vendors. Only about 100,000 units are expected to ship in 2008. 2009 will show the fruits of the more than 20 trials currently underway, but 2010 will be the year when the market moves to double-digit millions in volume.

According to ABI Research vice president and research director Stuart Carlaw, “By 2010, femtocell silicon solutions will have been optimized to the degree that $100 price points for femtocell access points will be within reach, and OEMs’ order books will have the volume to sustain critical wholesale price reductions.”

Although it’s an old cliché, it is true to say that when it comes to femtocells, it’s not a question of “if,” but “when.” Carlaw contends that, “The turning point for this market will be late 2009. There is little doubt that all the technical hurdles regarding femtocell deployments can be overcome. The really critical issue will be whether initial carrier deployments are supported by robust business models and service plans that extend beyond pure fixed-mobile substitution goals.” Should a carrier fail to pay heed to these needs and execute unsuccessfully in the early days, it could act as a braking force on the total market development.

Although initial deployments are expected to be dominated by standalone products, the market seems destined to adopt a more integrated approach as price points permit femtocell functionality to be embedded in other products.