ACT Research Sees Less Severe Economic Downturn for 2023

January 11, 2023

ACT’s latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK reported moderating core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), slowing jobs growth, and decelerating wage inflation indicate the Fed’s campaign to bring inflation under control may be bearing fruit, and the need for further interest rate increases may be limited.

The N.A. CV OUTLOOK is a robust report that forecasts the future of the industry, looking at the next 1-5 years, with the objective of giving OEMs, Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers, and investment firms the information needed to plan accordingly for what is to come. The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, as well as takes a deep dive into relevant, current market activity to highlight orders, production, and backlogs, shedding light on the forecast. Information included in this report covers forecasts and current market conditions for medium and heavy-duty trucks/tractors, and trailers, the macroeconomies of the US, Canada, and Mexico, publicly-traded carrier information, oil and fuel price impacts, freight and intermodal considerations, and regulatory environment impacts.

According to Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst, “The critical factor in forecasting 2023 is identifying the point at which lower freight volumes and rates, coupled with higher borrowing costs compress carrier profits sufficiently to end the cycle. Our current thinking is the negatives begin to weigh on orders as soon as 1H’23, and more meaningfully by 2H’23.” He added, “However, with healthy backlogs, early 2023 carrier profitability strength, and the potential for a CARB-induced prebuy in California, there is a compelling case to be made for production volumes to be sustained at end-of-2022 levels through all of 2023.”

The critical factor in forecasting 2023 is identifying the point at which lower freight volumes and rates, coupled with higher borrowing costs compress carrier profits sufficiently to end the cycle. -Kenny Vieth, President and Senior Analyst“Reflecting softer macro and freight trends, ACT’s forward-looking Tractor Dashboard remained in negative territory in November. While the dashboard has signaled incoming softness since March, the low single-digit negative readings seen in 2022 are mild, relative to the double-digit negative prints witnessed in late 2015 and early 2019.” Vieth concluded. “Part of the ‘strength’ in the current environment relates to the supply constraints that limited the industry’s ability to build all the trucks that would otherwise have been produced in 2021 and 2022.”