Private Hiring Disappoints

November 30, 2022

Private sector employment increased by 127,000 jobs in November and annual pay was up 7.6 percent year-over-year, according to the November ADP National Employment Report produced by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.

Private companies jobs add of 127,000 was down from the 239,000 in October and shy of the 190,000 estimate.

The jobs report and pay insights use ADP's fine-grained anonymized and aggregated payroll data of over 25 million U.S. employees to provide a representative picture of the labor market. The report details the current month's total private employment change, and weekly job data from the previous month. ADP's pay measure uniquely captures the earnings of a cohort of almost 10 million employees over a 12-month period.

"Turning points can be hard to capture in the labor market, but our data suggest that Federal Reserve tightening is having an impact on job creation and pay gains," said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. "In addition, companies are no longer in hyper-replacement mode. Fewer people are quitting and the post-pandemic recovery is stabilizing."

JOBS REPORT

Private employers added 127,000 jobs in November
Job creation slowed by the most since January 2021, led by construction and other interest rate-sensitive sectors. Consumer-facing segments - including health care and hospitality - were bright spots.

Change in U.S. Private Employment: 127,000

Change by Industry Sector

- Goods-producing: -86,000

Natural resources/mining 16,000
Construction -2,000
Manufacturing -100,000

- Service-providing: 213,000

Trade/transportation/utilities 62,000
Information -25,000
Financial activities -34,000
Professional/business services -77,000
Education/health services 55,000
Leisure/hospitality 224,000
Other services 8,000

Change by U.S. Regions

- Northeast: 158,000

New England -7,000
Middle Atlantic 165,000

- Midwest: -41,000

East North Central -34,000
West North Central -7,000

- South: -2,000

South Atlantic 8,000
East South Central 18,000
West South Central -28,000

- West: 12,000

Mountain -20,000
Pacific 32,000

Change by Establishment Size

- Small establishments: -51,000

1-19 employees 5,000
20-49 employees -56,000

- Medium establishments: 246,000

50-249 employees 283,000
250-499 employees -37,000

- Large establishments: -68,000

500+ employees -68,000

PAY INSIGHTS

Pay gains moderated again in November
Pay growth remained elevated even as it continued a modest but broad-based deceleration. Job changers notched their fifth straight slowdown and the smallest increase in pay since January. Pay growth for job stayers edged down, too, led by leisure and hospitality, which had a rapid run-up in 2021 but has been falling since March.

Median Change in Annual Pay (ADP matched person sample)

- Job-Stayers 7.6%
- Job-Changers 15.1%

Median Change in Annual Pay for Job-Stayers by Industry Sector

- Goods-producing:

Natural resources/mining 7.8%
Construction 6.8%
Manufacturing 7.5%

- Service-providing:

Trade/transportation/utilities 8.1%
Information 7.3%
Financial activities 7.8%
Professional/business services 6.8%
Education/health services 7.2%
Leisure/hospitality 10.8%
Other services 6.8%

Median Change in Annual Pay for Job-Stayers by Firm Size

- Small firms:

1-19 employees 5.6%
20-49 employees 7.2%

- Medium firms:

50-249 employees 7.9%
250-499 employees 7.8%

- Large firms:

500+ employees 8.1%