ABI Research Sees Production-Grade Autonomous Transport Scaling
August 31, 2021
factory production begins for leading OEMs within the next three years, SAE
Level 4 autonomy will move from modified heavy-duty trucks and pilots to a
reality across multiple regions. According to ABI Research, these vehicle
shipments will rise worldwide by 186% from 2024 to 2026.
“TuSimple with Navistar plan to launch in 2024, with their Autonomous Freight
Network underway with partners like Penske Truck Leasing. Others gaining
momentum include Plus, planned for 2024 and IPO candidate Aurora, anticipating
integration with PACCAR and Volvo in 2023,” states
Susan Beardslee, Principal Analyst, Supply Chain
Management and Logistics at ABI Research. OEMs, along with start-ups
and established partners like Intel’s Mobileye and HERE Technologies, are moving
rapidly toward commercialization across North America, Europe, and Asia.
shortages, rising insurance rates, “nuclear” verdicts, and growing fuel costs
all contribute to a desire for greater autonomy. Fleets must concurrently
address the pressing needs to support massive e-commerce demand, profitability,
and regulations on Hours of Service (HOS). Furthermore, additive regulations at
the country-level need to address capabilities and restrictions, across
modalities for SAE Level 4 operations.
“The next five years will demonstrate viability, safety, and revenue paths for
real-world highly automated driving, with a focus on heavy-duty vehicles on
highways and delivery vehicles on city roads,” Beardslee concludes.