Visa Sees U.S. Spending Momentum Rise in July
August 18, 2021
released the July reading of the U.S. Spending Momentum Index (SMI), which
reached 112.5, up 0.8 points from the June reading of 111.7. A reading above 100
suggests consumer spending continues to expand on a year-over-year basis. The
Visa SMI is an economic indicator of the health of consumer spending. The SMI
provides insight into what drives upturns and downturns in spending by measuring
the breadth of the momentum supporting these trends.
Visa has created additional sub-indexes to better track how labor market trends
are impacting consumer spending. Categories of spending more sensitive to income
changes are grouped in a discretionary SMI index, and those that are less
sensitive in a non-discretionary SMI index. Restaurants are treated separately
as dining out can be either discretionary or non-discretionary depending on the
services offered. Similarly, the sensitivity of spending at gas stations differs
by season, and is more discretionary in nature during the summer travel season.
The gap between the discretionary SMI and the non-discretionary SMI can indicate
how the strength of the labor market is influencing spending. The discretionary
SMI reading for July was 107.9 while the non-discretionary SMI registered 100.1.
According to the SMI, throughout most of last year, non-discretionary spending
outperformed discretionary spending as consumers stocked up on groceries and
other household essentials. Beginning in March of this year, coinciding with a
sharp rise in vaccinations, the discretionary spending SMI readings have been
consistently higher than non-discretionary, implying a pickup in purchases that
are more sensitive to changes in income or employment, such as dining out,
entertainment, and travel.
first read on third quarter consumer spending is signaling another solid start
to the quarter,” said Wayne Best, Visa’s Chief Economist. “The elevated readings
from the discretionary spending SMI imply consumers’ confidence in economic
conditions is adding momentum to spending in categories that were especially
hard-hit by the pandemic. This is a very positive sign for the recovery—as long
as it keeps up.”
On a regional basis, the SMI for the Midwest continued to lag behind other parts
of the country, with an SMI reading of 111.0 in July followed by the Northeast
at 111.5. The West again had the highest regional SMI reading at 114.8, while
the South saw the largest acceleration from the previous month, rising 2.7
points to 113.4.
Previously only available to Visa clients, Visa is now publishing components of
the SMI on a monthly basis for the general public, in part to help track
economic recovery progress. The SMI builds on Visa’s commitment to powering
commerce by providing tools and insights that help to gauge consumers’ ability
to spend and their overall participation in the economic recovery.