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CPI Up Less Than Expected In November

December 13, 2022

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The consumer price index compared with respective estimates of 0.3% and 7.3%.

The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, more than offsetting decreases in energy indexes. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month with the food at home index also rising 0.5 percent. The energy index decreased 1.6 percent over the month as the gasoline index, the natural gas index, and the electricity index all declined.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in November, after rising 0.3 percent in October. The indexes for shelter, communication, recreation, motor vehicle insurance, education, and apparel were among those that increased over the month. Indexes which declined in November include the used cars and trucks, medical care, and airline fares indexes.

The all items index increased 7.1 percent for the 12 months ending November; this was the smallest 12-month increase since the period ending December 2021. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.0 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 13.1 percent for the 12 months ending November, and the food index increased 10.6 percent over the last year; all of these increases were smaller than for the period ending October.


The food index increased 0.5 percent in November following a 0.6-percent increase in October. The food at home index also rose 0.5 percent in November. Four of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased over the month. The index for fruits and vegetables increased 1.4 percent in November, after falling 0.9 percent in October. The index for cereals and bakery products rose 1.1 percent over the month while the index for dairy and related products increased 1.0 percent in November. The index for nonalcoholic beverages rose 0.7 percent in November, after rising 0.5 percent last month.

In contrast, the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs fell 0.2 percent over the month after increasing 0.6 percent in October. The beef index fell 0.8 percent over the month, while the pork index fell 0.3 percent. The index for other food at home also declined in November, falling 0.1 percent.

The food away from home index rose 0.5 percent in November, after increasing 0.9 percent in each of the previous 3 months. The index for limited service meals increased 0.6 percent over the month and the index for full service meals increased 0.4 percent.

The food at home index rose 12.0 percent over the last 12 months. The index for cereals and bakery products and the index for dairy and related products both rose 16.4 percent over the year. The remaining major grocery store food groups posted increases ranging from 6.8 percent (meats, poultry, fish, and eggs) to 13.9 percent (other food at home).

The index for food away from home rose 8.5 percent over the last year. The index for full service meals rose 9.0 percent over the last 12 months, and the index for limited service meals rose 6.7 percent over the same period.

Energy

The energy index fell 1.6 percent in November after rising 1.8 percent in October. The gasoline index declined 2.0 percent over the month, following a 4.0-percent increase in October. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices fell 3.6 percent in November.) The index for natural gas continued to decline over the month, falling 3.5 percent after decreasing 4.6 percent in October. The electricity index decreased 0.2 percent in November.

The energy index rose 13.1 percent over the past 12 months. The gasoline index increased 10.1 percent over the span and the fuel oil index rose 65.7 percent. The index for electricity rose 13.7 percent over the last 12 months, and the index for natural gas increased 15.5 percent over the same period.

All items less food and energy

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in November, its smallest increase since August 2021. The shelter index continued to increase, rising 0.6 percent over the month. The rent index rose 0.8 percent over the month, and the owners' equivalent rent index rose 0.7 percent. The index for lodging away from home decreased 0.7 percent in November, after rising 4.9 percent in October.

The shelter index was the dominant factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy; other components were a mix of increases and declines. Among the indexes that rose in November was the index for communication which increased 1.0 percent over the month after decreasing 0.1 percent in October. The index for recreation rose 0.5 percent in November, following a 0.7-percent increase in the previous month. The motor vehicle insurance index increased 0.9 percent in November, the personal care index rose 0.7 percent, and the education index rose 0.3 percent over the month.

In contrast, the medical care index fell 0.5 percent in November, as it did in October. The index for hospital and related services decreased 0.3 percent over the month, and the index for prescription drugs declined 0.2 percent. The index for physicians' services was unchanged in November.

Other indexes which declined over the month include the index for used cars and trucks, which fell 2.9 percent in November, the fifth consecutive decline in that index. The index for airline fares fell 3.0 percent over the month, following a 1.1-percent decrease in October. The index for household furnishings and operations was unchanged in November, as was the index for new vehicles.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 6.0 percent over the past 12 months. The shelter index increased 7.1 percent over the last year, accounting for nearly half of the total increase in all items less food and energy. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include household furnishings and operations (+7.6 percent), medical care (+4.2 percent), new vehicles (+7.2 percent), and recreation (+4.7 percent).

Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 7.1 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 297.711 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index decreased 0.1 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 7.1 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 292.495 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index decreased 0.2 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 6.9 percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the index decreased 0.1 percent on a not seasonally adjusted basis.

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